NFL odds, picks for Week 10: Advanced computer model loves Rams, Patriots

NFL odds, picks for Week 10: Advanced computer model loves Rams, Patriots

The NFL’s 10th weekend will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors.

The Atlanta Falcons are three-point favorites over the Dallas Cowboys, the New Orleans Saints are 2.5-point favorites over the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots are 7.5-point favorites over the Denver Broncos in a game that has already seen plenty of line movement.

With so many eye-popping games and so many NFL odds on the move, you’ll want to know what SportsLine’s advanced computer model is picking.

SportsLine’s Projection Model went an amazing 174-80-2 on straight-up NFL picks last season — better than all 98 experts tracked by NFLPickWatch. Every single one.

SportsLine computer picks also would have won over 96 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool Manager leagues that made straight-up NFL picks last season.

It’s fresh off a week in which it called the Eagles (-7) covering against the Broncos with ease. It also nailed the Saints (-7) covering against the Bucs with plenty of room to spare.

With Week 10 here, the computer simulated every matchup 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.

One team it loves this week: the Los Angeles Rams (-11.5) against the Houston Texans. Houston is completely decimated with key injuries on both sides of the ball and is coming off a humiliating loss to a Colts team that had just two wins coming into last week. SportsLine’s advanced projection model says the red-hot Rams, who scored 51 points last week, completely roll over the Texans 29-15, covering the spread with room to spare.

Another team SportsLine’s proven model is all-in on: the New England Patriots, who are 7.5-point favorites against the Denver Broncos on “Sunday Night Football.” The Pats are fresh off a bye week while Denver has lost four straight by 10 or more points. SportsLine is calling for a comfortable 26-15 victory for New England in this matchup of teams heading in completely opposite directions.

One surprise: The New Orleans Saints (-2.5) lose outright at Buffalo this week. The computer model projects Buffalo to keep New Orleans’ running back duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara close to 100 yards on the ground, and will hold Drew Brees under 300 through the air. The Bills are winning this game on the money line (+110) 53 percent of the time and covering the spread in 57 percent of simulations. Take the Bills with confidence against the streaking Saints in an outdoor game in November.

The model also is calling for a big victory for one side in a game that oddsmakers view as close to 50/50. Grab this team now to get your Sunday off to a profitable start.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 10? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Cowboys-Falcons game is a virtual lock, all from the model that would have won 96 percent of football pools last season, and get NFL picks from 16 experts.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5, 41.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (+1.5, 42.5)
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5, 38)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+10, 44.5)
L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4, 41)
N.Y. Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5, 41)
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-5, 40.5)
New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 46)
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-12, 44)
Houston Texans at L.A. Rams (-11.5, 46.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 50.5)
N.Y. Giants at San Francisco 49ers (+1, 42.5)
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+7.5, 46)
Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (-9, 39.5)


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