NFL Week 10 Picks: Bears rout Packers and more of Will Brinson’s best bets
We nearly had a good weekend last weekend, but the stupid Dolphins ruined everything with their push and then the stupid Packers really ruined everything by being terrible on Monday night. 2-2-1 isn’t going to get it done. The 49ers are garbage, by the way.
But it’s enough to tread water and look for a hot streak. I’m just five picks behind Pete Prisco for the lead in the Pick Six Podcast (subscribe here on iTunes) rankings and could use some kind of hot streak just to really shake things up and get some mojo going. The slate this week looks tough and I might hate my picks, so that means there’s a good chance we go big.
Fade at your leisure and tell me who you think I picked wrong on Twitter @WillBrinson.
Getting a little nervous about this one after everyone on the Pick Six Podcast (subscribe via iTunes here) decided to take the Redskins as a best bet. That’s the old Kiss of Death parlay special (hammer the Vikings and Browns!), and it has worked well. But the Redskins as dogs is crazy against Case Keenum. This is a good Redskins team, capable of playing strong defense and limiting the Vikings’ passing attack (although they’re not great against slot receivers, so you could see Adam Thielen go off). The biggest concern here is that the Redskins’ offensive line might not be healthy enough to keep the Vikings’ ferocious pass rush at bay. Minnesota is coming off a bye and will be rested, but the Redskins’ mojo after winning that game late against Seattle is going to carry over here and they’re going to insert themselves in the NFC playoff conversation with a home win.
Bears -5.5 vs. Packers
What kind of world are we living in where the Bears are huge favorites against the Packers and we’re actively taking them to not just win but blow out their rivals? A world without Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre starting for the Packers, that’s where. And buddy, it has been a long time since that was the case.
This is not so much a bet on Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears offense — I don’t think they will put up a ton of points and could really struggle to cross the 20-point barrier. But the Bears defense is good at home. They have given up 23 (Falcons, Week 1), 17 (Steelers, Week 3), 20 (Vikings, Week 5) and three (Panthers, Week 7). They are coming off the bye and smell blood in the water when it comes to taking out a divisional opponent and chief rival they have struggled against. The Packers looked lost with Brett Hundley at home with two weeks to prepare and now travel to a hostile environment on a short week against a rested defense. Lay the points.
The Bills are just a good home team against the spread, going 3-0-1 against the number at home, and 1-0 this season as a home dog (when they beat the Broncos in a surprise). The Saints are the better team, and they’re playing well. But New Orleans hasn’t seen a ton of good quarterbacks this season. Tyrod Taylor is a dangerous weapon to account for, and the Bills have some talent at wide receiver with Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews. Charles Clay could come back as well. LeSean McCoy gets it going here and they put the Saints off their game while bottling up Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. The Saints giving out points on the road, in potentially cold weather, is not where you want to be. Take the points with the home dog.
I don’t love it. Not gonna lie. The Jaguars are scary. But everyone is on them. The Chargers on the East Coast isn’t a great spot either. And I’m not entirely sure they can pass protect well enough for Philip Rivers to keep the Jags defense at bay. But they can run the ball and keep Rivers from getting hit too hard by Calais Campbell and Co. The Chargers need to stack the box and gang tackle Leonard Fournette — they are not great against the run, but just load up the box and make Blake Bortles beat you. And if they can get a lead, you’re going to see a team that can tee off in the pass rush with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. The Chargers are a little undervalued after looking a little lost in New England against the Patriots. Everyone is buying a bit too much into the Jaguars. Give me the points.
Panthers -9 vs. Dolphins
I’ve been telling myself to stay away from big point spreads, but I don’t care in this instance. Carolina has not blown out a lot of teams this year, but the Dolphins are not good and the matchup here is not optimal for Miami. The Dolphins offense looked capable after ditching Jay Ajayi last week, but that was against the Raiders‘ lowly defense. The Panthers are the top-ranked defense (by yards, and top five by points) in the NFL. The Dolphins are not going to move the ball against them. The Panthers will probably score somewhere between 21 and 28 points. But the Dolphins aren’t cracking 10. They’re not. Take the Panthers, who are 4-1 against the spread at home as favorites of a touchdown or more since 2014.
- Last week best bets: 2-2-1
- Best bets season: 15-29-1
- Last week overall: 5-7-1
- Season overall: 61-67-4
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