NFL odds, picks Week 10: Advanced computer model loves Patriots, Giants

NFL odds, picks Week 10: Advanced computer model loves Patriots, Giants

The NFL’s 10th weekend will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors.

The Atlanta Falcons are three-point favorites over the Dallas Cowboys, the New Orleans Saints are three-point favorites over the Buffalo Bills, and the New England Patriots are 7.5-point favorites over the Denver Broncos in a game that has already seen plenty of line movement.

With so many eye-popping games and so many NFL odds on the move, you’ll want to know what SportsLine’s advanced computer model is picking.

SportsLine’s Projection Model went an amazing 174-80-2 on straight-up NFL picks last season — better than all 98 experts tracked by NFLPickWatch. Every single one.

SportsLine computer picks also would have won over 96 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool Manager leagues that made straight-up NFL picks last season.

It’s fresh off a week in which it called the Eagles (-7) covering against the Broncos with ease. It also nailed the Saints (-7) covering against the Bucs with plenty of room to spare and, this week, it already called the Seahawks beating the Cardinals on “Thursday Night Football.”

With Week 10 here, the computer simulated every matchup 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.

One team it loves this week: the New England Patriots, who are 7.5-point favorites against the Denver Broncos on “Sunday Night Football.” The Pats are fresh off a bye week, while Denver has lost four straight by 10 or more points. SportsLine is calling for a comfortable 27-15 victory for New England in this matchup of teams heading in completely opposite directions. 

The Broncos are so desperate under center that they’ve turned to Brock Osweiler (19-38 for 208 yards, one touchdown, and two picks last week). SportsLine’s computer model says there’s a higher chance that Osweiler throws an interception than a touchdown and he’ll struggle to get over 200 yards of passing.

And even though Tom Brady will be without WR Chris Hogan (shoulder), he’ll still throw for almost 300 yards and two touchdowns, including one to TE Rob Gronkowski.

Another team SportsLine’s proven model is all-in on: the New York Giants, who are 2.5-point road favorites on the West Coast against the San Francisco 49ers.

The Giants once lost their top four receivers in a single game, but the model says they’ll pour it on the 49ers and win by a touchdown. The 49ers are 4-5 against the spread this season and have put up exactly 10 points in three straight games, two at home, and they haven’t had a receiver top 100 yards since Week 5. They are second-to-last in points allowed (26.6) and dead last in rushing yards allowed (135.7).

The G-Men are covering the spread in 64 percent of simulations and winning outright 67 percent of the time. Back Eli Manning and the Giants on Sunday in what SportsLine says will be a 21-14 win. Look for the Under (42) to hit as well.

One surprise: The New Orleans Saints (-3) lose outright at Buffalo this week. The computer model projects Buffalo to keep New Orleans’ running back duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara close to 100 yards on the ground and will hold Drew Brees under 300 through the air. The Bills are winning this game on the money line (+125) 53 percent of the time and covering the spread in 58 percent of simulations. Take the Bills against the streaking Saints in an outdoor game in November.

The model also is calling for a big victory for one side in a game that oddsmakers view as close to 50/50. Grab this team now to get your Sunday off to a profitable start.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 10? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Cowboys-Falcons game is a virtual lock, all from the model that would have won 96 percent of football pools last season, and get NFL picks from 16 experts.

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (+1.5, 40.5)
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5.5, 37.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+10, 45)
L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5, 41)
N.Y. Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5, 43.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-4.5, 40.5)
New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (+3, 48)
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-10.5, 43.5)
Houston Texans at L.A. Rams (-12, 45.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 48.5)
N.Y. Giants at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 42)
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+7.5, 44.5)
Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (-9, 38.5)


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